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Wet and Wetter

Location really is critical in proximity to coastlines, and to the objective measuring stick of the geodetic vertical datum, the zero elevation.  The denizens of New York City learned this harsh lesson in 2012, on the receiving end of the same damaging forces more typically experienced by coastal residents from Bangladesh to the Netherlands.  Hurricane Sandy was unusual in many ways – late-season, upper Atlantic location – but the force carried by wind and water were the standard hurricane fare.  In New York, storms like this happen so infrequently and unpredictably as to make designing a plan of resistance for homes or small buildings uneconomical.  However, when the financial capital of the world is crippled by storms, it is useful to consider whether some hardening of the infrastructure systems might be practical.

Water finds the cracks and basins in the urban system.  Rain celebrates a flight of stairs leading down into the earth, an opening to below, an invitation to sweep detritus along with it to return to the filtering sands beneath our manmade crust on top.  An open escalator, a ventilation grate, a bank of turnstiles – these offer no barrier to water.

New York City transportation systems failed as spectacularly as the electrical grid.  Five million riders a day use the subways.  On a fine day, 13 million gallons of water are pumped out of tunnels, primarily rainwater, and the ubiquitous flow of sidewalk- and street-cleaning that enters through subway vents.  On a wet day, the systems can barely keep up.  There is no extra capacity for storms or superstorms, which bring in not just water but introduce salt water, corrosive and conductive, into this electricity-dependent subterranean world.  “Because city officials are not in the business of advertising their concerns, most New Yorkers don't realize that some have been imagining this scenario for a while. The culprit, some say, could be climate change. To be sure, New York faces unprecedented dangers in a warming world. Although the waters along the east coast of the United States have been inching up since the end of the last ice age, the rate of rise has accelerated in the last 150 years. This is particularly true in places like New York, where land is also subsiding as the Earth's crust readjusts. If polar ice sheets continue to melt at their current rate, the water around Manhattan and Long Island could rise by five inches within the next eight years. By mid-century, local sea level could be up by a foot, and up by two feet by 2080.”[i]

This financial capital is sounding more and more like the world trade center of a thousand years ago.  Venice may have defined trade in the twelfth century, but its susceptibility to encroaching waters has affected the city’s stability as a financial powerhouse since then.  If engineers can’t keep the water out, the beautiful palaces will continue to crumble, the floating hummocks sink, and the city disappear beneath the waves, a modern Atlantis. Against modern threats, cities including Rotterdam, Venice, and London are creating new types of water barriers at the mouth of rivers and estuaries.  These mechanisms address rising sea levels, storm surge and flooding, especially under the influence of extreme weather patterns.

As global weather patterns tip from the predictable to the extreme, coastal fortifications against hazards will increase.  The catalog of proposed measures is long and expensive: bulkheads and bulwarks, drowned reefs of subway cars, restored wetland fringes, wave attenuators, pervious streets, rainwater bladders, harbor barriers, flood gates, sea gates, all manner of gates, oyster reefs, inflatable balloon dams, et cetera.  The force of water is impossible to resist.  Venice learned this long ago, although elegant efforts valiantly extend the city’s lifeline.  Will other coastal centers of finance and trade – New York City, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong – learn these lessons before they also succumb to the waves?

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[i] Jesse Newman, “For New York's Subway, Sandy's Devastation May Be Just the Beginning.”  The Atlantic, Nov 1 2012.

Safety

When searching for safety, it is logical to look for places with minimal exposure to cataclysmic events that feature the upheaval of the water and wind, fire and earth: hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, avalanches, sinkholes, volcanoes, blizzards, wildfires, droughts, floods….  The list of possible threats is long, their consequences dire.

Measured against these dangers, where are safe places to live?  Fifty percent of the world’s population lives within fifty miles of the coastline, susceptible to sea level change, flooding, tsunamis, and storm surge.  But inland locations are not immune from natural hazards.  Large-scale manmade hazards such as nuclear power generators offer another criterion for evaluating community safety, along with chemical and electrical plants.

Forbes magazine studied community safety in 2005.  Not surprisingly, paradise topped the list of safe American cities, with Honolulu, Hawaii ranked highest.  Volcanoes?  Extinct on the island of Oahu. The 2011 tsunami had limited impact, mostly on the big island of Hawaii.

Other relatively safe places in the U.S. include Boise, Idaho and Santa Fe, New Mexico.  New Zealand has been identified as the safest place to live using the Global Peace Index, including indicators related to political instability, armed conflict, and violent crime.  With a long, unshared border along the sea, New Zealand may not be likely to sustain armed conflict with neighbors, but natural disasters occur with dismaying frequency.  The ring of tectonic fire in the Pacific is still in motion, causing earthquakes, tsunamis, and avalanches.

Following back-to-back hurricanes in 2005, rebuilding along the Gulf of Mexico coastline was questioned.  Public investment in roads, infrastructure, and housing stock was delayed as Congress debated ways to mitigate against future losses.  They ultimately provided funds to “buy out” owners with properties that had suffered “repetitive losses.”  The buy-out program encouraged a retreat from areas of the sensitive coastal wetlands which should never have been long-term prospects for development.  This type of “non-structural” solution is less expensive, and requires lower maintenance, than the methods of building community safety with levees, channels, breakwaters, and other constructed means.

If there are no inherently safe places, then the provision of safety lies to a great extent in the hands of the architect and engineer.  We can continue whistling in the dark as the oceans rise, public transport options are severed, and habitats are scraped bare; or we can engage in producing solutions for self-sufficiency and resilience.  As desirable and safe places are colonized by a growing population, it is essential to remember that where you build is often more important than what you build.